The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported that the Producer Price Index for Final Demand in September 2024 was unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis. August showed a 0.2 percent increase, while July was flat. Over the past 12 months, the final demand index has risen by 1.8 percent, according to unadjusted data. Within final demand, the services price index rose 0.2 percent in September, offsetting a 0.2 percent decline in final demand goods prices.

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.2% in August 2024, after no change in July 2024 (the figures have not been revised since the last release). Preliminary data show that real GDP rose by 0.2% in the three months to August compared with the three months to May 2024. Services output rose 0.1% in August, preceded by an unrevised 0.1% increase in July, and services output also rose 0.1% in the three months to August.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in August and July. Over the past 12 months, the index for all items excluding seasonal adjustments rose 2.4%. In September, the index of housing costs rose 0.2% and the index of food prices rose 0.4%. These two categories accounted for more than 75% of the monthly increase in all items. The index for food at home rose 0.4%, while the index for food outside the home rose 0.3% during the month.

According to preliminary data from the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), retail trade in Germany in August 2024 was 1.6% higher than in July 2024, in both real and nominal terms, after adjusting for calendar and seasonal effects. Compared with August 2023, turnover was up 2.1% in real terms and 3.1% in nominal terms. Prior to this, retail sales had fallen in May and June 2024 compared with the previous months.

New Zealand Reserve Bank policymakers have cut the official cash rate by half a percentage point, a significant achievement in meeting inflation targets. At Wednesday's meeting of the seven-member Monetary Policy Committee, it was decided to cut the base rate from 5.25% to 4.75%. According to the statement, annual inflation is now within the target range and "close to the 2% target". The central bank also highlighted that the New Zealand economy currently has excess capacity, which is helping prices and wages adjust to the low inflation environment.

Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, estimates that seasonally adjusted retail trade rose by 0.2% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU in August 2024, compared with July 2024. Over the same period, in July 2024, retail trade remained unchanged in the euro area and grew by 0.1% in the EU. Compared with August 2023, annual growth in August 2024 was 0.8% in the euro area and 1.0% in the EU for the calendar-adjusted retail sales index.

Nonfarm payrolls in the United States increased by 254,000 in September, while the unemployment rate remained almost unchanged at 4.1 percent. According to the report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the largest increases were in food services and accommodation, health care, government, social assistance, and construction. The report includes results from two different monthly surveys. The household survey measures the labour market situation by demographics, including unemployment, while the establishment survey looks at employment, hours worked and earnings by industry.

In the week ending September 28, the preliminary number of seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the United States was 225,000, up 6,000 from the previous week's revised figure. The previous week's figure was revised up by 1 000, from 218 000 to 219 000. The 4-week moving average fell to 224 250, a decrease of 750 from the previous week. The previous week's moving average was raised by 250, from 224,750 to 225,000.

According to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO), the consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.3% in September 2024 compared with the previous month to 107.2 points. Annual inflation was +0.8% compared with the same month of the previous year. The monthly decline of 0.3% is due to a number of factors, including lower prices for international travel packages, additional accommodation and air travel.

Private sector employment increased by 143,000 in September, while annual wages rose by 4.7 percent year-over-year. This data was released in the September ADP® National Employment Report™, produced by ADP Research and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab"). The ADP National Employment Report is an independent analytical tool that provides accurate and frequent insights into the private sector labor market. The analysis is based on actual, anonymized payroll data for more than 25 million U.S. workers.

According to the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business, U.S. manufacturing economic activity declined for the sixth consecutive month in September, falling for 22 of the past 23 months, according to Timothy R. Fiore, Chairman of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. The manufacturing PMI stood at 47.2 percent in September, the same as in August. The U.S. economy, following a brief contraction in April 2020, has now posted 53 months of growth.

Euro area annual inflation is expected to fall to 1.8% in September 2024, from 2.2% in August, according to a flash estimate by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Based on the main components of inflation, the annual rate for services is expected to remain the highest in September at 4.0%, compared with 4.1% in August. Inflation for food, alcohol and tobacco will rise slightly to 2.4% from 2.3% in the previous month. For non-energy industrial goods, inflation remains stable at 0.4%. Energy inflation, however, shows a significant decline to -6.0% in September from -3.0% in August.

In September, China's official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.8 from 49.1 previously, beating market expectations of 49.5. At the same time, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) non-manufacturing PMI index declined to 50.0 from 50.3 in August, below the forecast of 50.4.

According to the latest data from the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, prices rose at a slower-than-expected pace on a monthly basis in August. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which excludes food and energy costs and is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.1% in August from the previous month. This is lower than the 0.2% increase expected by Wall Street and the 0.2% rise in July. Year-over-year, prices rose 2.7% in August, in line with Wall Street expectations and higher than July's 2.6%.

In September, core inflation in Tokyo reached the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, indicating that the economy is closer to meeting the conditions for an interest rate hike. Although political and international economic uncertainties may prompt the Bank of Japan to hold off on a rate hike at its October meeting, the positive inflation data further strengthens market expectations for an interest rate hike in December or early next year, analysts say.

In the week ending September 21, the preliminary number of seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims was 218,000, down 4,000 from a revised 222,000 the previous week. The previous week's figure was initially estimated at 219 000 but was later revised to 222 000. The 4-week moving average fell to 224 750, down 3 500 from the previous week's revised average of 228 250.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will reduce its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.0%, effective from 27 September 2024. Banks' demand deposits held with the SNB will be charged at the key interest rate up to a certain limit and at 0.5% above this limit. The SNB remains ready to intervene actively in the foreign exchange market if necessary. Inflationary pressures have eased significantly compared with the previous quarter, partly explained by the appreciation of the Swiss franc over the past three months.v

Australia's CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose by 2.7% in the 12 months to August. The largest increases were in the categories of housing costs (+2.6%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.4%) and alcohol and tobacco (+6.6%). The annual increase was partly offset by a 1.1% decrease in transport costs. New this month were the Commonwealth Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates and state government subsidies, which will be applied in some states beginning July 2024. In August, Commonwealth subsidies were applied in all states and territories.

In the United States, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® fell to 98.7 points in September from an upwardly revised 105.6 points in August (1985=100). The Current Situation Index, which reflects consumers' assessment of current economic and labor market conditions, fell 10.3 points to 124.3 points. The expectations index, which reflects consumers' short-term outlook for income, business opportunities, and the labor market, has declined 4.6 points to 81.7, but is still above 80. (Normally, a reading below 80 indicates an impending recession.) Preliminary results closed on September 17, 2024.

Business activity in the euro area private sector contracted again in September, according to the preliminary PMI® survey. This was the first drop in output in seven months, accompanied by a continued decline in new orders. In fact, new orders fell by the largest amount since January. New orders and backlogs continue to fall at a sharp pace and business confidence has hit a ten-month low, causing companies to reduce their workforce for the second month in a row.

According to the latest HCOB PMI® survey results, France's private sector economy contracted again at the end of the third quarter, following strong growth in the services sector in August. Overall business activity fell at the fastest pace since January as new orders continued to shrink. Survey respondents attributed this trend to deteriorating market conditions and a decline in the number of customers. Although backlogs of work fell at the fastest pace since November last year, employment showed a slight increase after a slight decline in the previous period.

According to preliminary estimates, UK retail sales volume (volume bought) increased by 1.0% in August 2024, above the 0.7% rise recorded in July 2024 (previously estimated at 0.5% but revised upwards). Several supermarkets and clothing chains reported growth, partly due to warmer weather and end-of-season sales. Looking at the broader picture, sales volumes rose 1.2% in the three months May to August 2024 compared with the previous period February to May 2024. The graph illustrates the change in retail sales volumes over time, showing both the rolling three-month average and the month-to-month movements.

At its meeting today, the Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Japan unanimously decided to set guidelines for money market operations for the intermeeting period. The Bank aims to maintain the uncovered overnight call rate at around 0.25%. Japan's economy has shown moderate growth, although it has also weakened at times. Global economies also expanded moderately, while Japan's exports and industrial production were largely flat.

The Bank of England on Thursday left interest rates at 5% while voting to cut the amount of UK government bonds held by a further £100 billion over the next 12 months, a move that will have a significant impact on the government's finances. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to keep interest rates unchanged, with only outsider Swati Dhingra backing a further quarter-point cut. This decision came after the BoE last month cut borrowing costs for the first time since 2020. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 7-2 vote in favour of keeping interest rates unchanged, after a close 5-4 vote last month to cut the previous 16-year peak rate.

Economic activity, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), fell by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2024, following a 0.1% increase in the first quarter of 2024. On an annual basis, GDP in June 2024 was 0.2% lower than in the year to June 2023. GDP-related expenditure was flat (0.0%) in the second quarter of 2024, compared with an increase of 0.3% in the first quarter. Year-on-year, expenditure increased by 0.3% in the year ending June 2024 compared with the year ending June 2023.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have issued a joint release on new housing statistics for August 2024. According to the data, the number of privately owned housing units approved with building permits in August was 1,475,000 on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. This represents a 4.9% increase from the revised July figure of 1 406 000, but is 6.5% below the 1 578 000 recorded in August 2023.

The Consumer Price Index for the UK (CPIH), which includes owner-occupiers' housing costs, rose by 3.1% in the 12 months to August 2024, the same as in July. On a month-on-month basis, the CPIH increased by 0.4% in August 2024, the same as in August 2023. The traditional CPI rose by 2.2% year-on-year in the year to August 2024, also unchanged from July. On a monthly basis, the CPI increased by 0.3% in August 2024, the same as in August 2023. The stagnation in both the CPIH and CPI annual rates was mainly driven by the increase in airfares, which rose this year compared to a year earlier.

US retail sales in August showed a monthly increase of 0.1%, while the analyst consensus forecast a decline of -0.2%. July's growth was revised to 1.1% from the original 1%. The control group excluding volatile items, which better reflects broader consumer spending, rose 0.3%, in line with expectations. The July figure in this case was also revised upwards to 0.4% from a preliminary 0.3%. Industrial production also fared better, rising 0.8% in August, well above the 0.2% increase expected.

Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.0% in August compared with the same period last year. This is the slowest pace of increase since February 2021 and lags the 2.5% rise in July 2024. The slowdown in inflation is partly due to a fall in petrol prices, the result of a combination of lower prices and a base year effect. Excluding gasoline prices, the CPI rose 2.2% in August compared with 2.5% in July. Mortgage interest costs and rents continued to be the largest contributors to the rise in the CPI. On a month-on-month basis, the CPI fell by 0.2% in August, compared to a 0.4% increase in July.

Business activity in New York State increased for the first time in nearly a year, according to the September 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The overall business conditions index rose 16 points to 11.5. New orders and shipments also showed significant increases. Lead times and supply remained stable, with inventories in balance. Labour market conditions remained weak as employment declined moderately and the average working week remained unchanged. Input and selling price growth rates were essentially stagnant.

The Swiss producer and import price index rose by 0.2% in August 2024 compared with the previous month, reaching 107.4 points. The price increase was particularly marked for pharmaceutical products, while prices of petroleum products fell. The price level of all domestic and imported goods fell by 1.2% compared to August 2023. According to data from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), the increase in the producer price index was mainly due to higher prices for pharmaceutical products compared to the previous month.

Consumer confidence in the United States rose slightly in early September, with the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index rising from 67.9 points in August to 69 points, beating market expectations of 68 points. The index measuring current economic conditions improved to 62.9 from 61.3, while the consumer expectations index rose to 73 from 72.1. The survey also revealed that one-year inflation expectations fell from 2.8% to 2.7%, while five-year inflation forecasts rose from 3% to 3.1%.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.5% in August 2024, compared with +0.2% in July. The rise is mainly due to a rebound in the prices of manufactured goods following the July sell-off (+1.4% after -2.3%), especially clothing and footwear (+6.2% after -10.7%). Services prices also rose compared to the previous month (+0.5% after +1.2%), especially accommodation prices (+7.2% after +12.6%). Food prices rose slightly (+0.3% after -0.2%), while energy prices fell (-1.3% after +1.4%). Tobacco prices remained unchanged compared to the previous month.

The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) today decided to cut the deposit facility rate, a tool for setting the stance of monetary policy, from 4.25 to 3.65. The Governing Council's updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the evolution of underlying inflation dynamics and the transmission efficiency of monetary policy justified the next step towards a reduction in monetary tightening.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in August, similar to the increase in July. Over the past 12 months, the index for all items excluding seasonal adjustments increased 2.5 percent. August's rise was driven primarily by a 0.5 percent increase in the accommodation index. The food index rose 0.1 percent, compared with 0.2 percent in July. The price of food outside the home increased 0.3 percent, while the price of food at home was unchanged.

The latest estimates for UK monthly real GDP in July 2024 show no growth, after no increase in June 2024. However, compared to the three months to April 2024, GDP grew by 0.5% in the period to July 2024, supported mainly by a broad expansion in the services sector. Services output grew by the same 0.1% in July, following a 0.1% decline, and rose 0.6% over the three months. In contrast, manufacturing output fell 0.8% in July 2024, following a 0.8% increase in June, and fell 0.1% over the three months as a whole.

The number of paid employees in the UK fell by 6,000 between June and July 2024, but rose by 203,000 between July 2023 and July 2024. Early estimates for August 2024 show that the number of paid employees fell by 59,000 per month, but increased by 122,000 year-on-year to 30.3 million. The August 2024 data should be treated as a preliminary estimate, which is expected to be revised in the light of further information coming in next month.

China's CPI inflation accelerated in August, although only a slight increase was observed compared to July. In contrast, producer price index inflation fell at the fastest pace in four months. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday, the consumer price index, the main measure of inflation, rose 0.6% year-on-year, above the forecast of 0.6% and slightly higher than the 0.5% increase in July. On a monthly basis, inflation was 0.4%, a slight deviation from the 0.5% expected and the 0.5% recorded in July.

Seasonally adjusted GDP in both the euro area and the European Union rose by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2024 compared with the previous quarter, Eurostat, the EU's statistical office, estimates. This represents a slower pace of growth compared with the 0.3% expansion in the first quarter of 2024. On an annual basis, GDP grew by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.8% in the EU in the second quarter of 2024, compared with 0.5% and 0.7% respectively in the previous quarter.

August saw a significant recovery in the US services sector, where business activity rose at a pace not seen in nearly two and a half years, thanks to a strong inflow of new orders. However, there is concern that employment fell after two months of job creation. On the cost side, higher supplier prices and rising wages continued to exert significant pressure, leading to a steady increase in input costs. Nevertheless, sales price inflation has fallen to a seven-month low.

According to the August ADP® National Employment Report™, a collaboration between ADP Research and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab"), the private sector added 99,000 jobs in August, althoughthe figure is down from the previous month. According to the report, annual wages increased 4.8% year-over-year. The ADP National Employment Report is an independent measure that provides a comprehensive picture of the private sector labor market based on anonymized payroll data for more than 25 million U.S. workers.

In August, the euro area's private sector grew at its fastest pace since May, helped mainly by a more dynamic recovery in the services sector. This represents a run of six consecutive months of growth, the longest such streak in more than two years. At the same time, surveys have highlighted the vulnerability of the euro area economy as new orders, employment and business confidence have fallen. On the positive side, however, the August data showed a moderation in cost pressures, with input prices rising at their slowest pace so far in 2024, broadly in line with the pre-pandemic average.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector declined for the fifth month in August and the 21st time in the past 22 months, according to the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Busines. The report was released by Timothy R. Fiore, Chairman of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. According to the report, the manufacturing PMI for August was 47.2 percent, up 0.4 percentage points from 46.8 percent in July.

The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained at 107.5 points in August 2024, unchanged from the previous month. Annual inflation was 1.1% year-on-year, according to the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). The monthly stability of the index was due to price changes in opposite directions. Prices of rented housing, clothing and footwear rose, while private transport rentals, air transport, fuel oil, international package tours, hotels and other accommodation fell.

Manufacturers in the euro area remain under severe pressure in the middle of the third quarter as production continues to fall in most countries. The decline in the number of new orders in 2024 has been the sharpest so far, leading to austerity measures as companies cut back on raw material purchases, recruitment and inventories. Business confidence fell to a five-month low. Despite this, although sales have fallen sharply, prices charged for euro area goods have risen for the first time since April 2023, while operating costs have been rising for the third month in a row.

The annual inflation rate in the euro area is expected to fall to 2.2% in August 2024 from 2.6% in July, according to preliminary data from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Among the components of inflation, services prices rose the most (4.2% compared with 4.0% in July), followed by food, alcohol and tobacco (2.4% compared with 2.3% in July). Non-energy industrial goods, on the other hand, are expected to fall (0.4% compared with 0.7% in July), while energy prices are expected to fall significantly (-3.0% compared with 1.2% in July).

Core inflation in Tokyo accelerated for the fourth straight month in August, data released on Friday showed. The index exceeded the central bank's inflation target of 2%, reinforcing market expectations for continued interest rate hikes. Tokyo's consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food prices, rose 2.4% year-on-year, compared with 2.2% expected and 2.2% in July.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimates that real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2024. This figure is higher than the 1.4 percent growth recorded in the first quarter. The latest estimate is based on more accurate data than the "preliminary" estimate released last month, which showed growth of 2.8 percent.

Spain's annual inflation rate reached 2.2% in August 2023, according to a preliminary report released on Friday by the country's National Statistics Institute (INE). This is lower than the 2.8% recorded in July and better than expected. The slowdown in inflation is mainly due to a fall in fuel prices and, to a lesser extent, to a decline in food and non-alcoholic beverage prices. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were stagnant, while the annual increase in the harmonised index of consumer prices was 2.4%, unchanged from July.

The annual growth rate of adjusted loans to households rose to 0.5% from 0.3% in June, while the annual growth rate of loans to non-financial corporations was 0.6%, down slightly from 0.7% in June. In July 2024, the annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 in Europe was 2.3%, unchanged from the previous month. The M1, the narrower monetary aggregate, which includes currency in circulation and overnight deposits, recorded an annual decline of -3.1%, the same as in the previous month.

The annual CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose by 3.5% in the 12 months to July, a decline from the 3.8% increase in June. The largest price increases were recorded in housing (+4.0%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.8%), alcohol and tobacco (+7.2%) and transport (+3.4%). The year-on-year change in the CPI excluding volatile items such as holiday travel eased to 3.7%, down from 4.0% in June.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 103.3 points in August, up from an upwardly revised 101.9 points in July. The Current Situation Index, which is based on consumers' assessment of the business and labor market situation, improved to 134.4 points from 133.1 points in July. In addition, the expectations index, which measures short-term prospects, also rose to 82.5 after a revised reading of 81.1 in July. This was the second month in a row that the index remained above 80 points.

New orders for consumer durables in the United States reached $289.6 billion in July, up 9.9% from the previous month, according to a preliminary report released Monday by the U.S. Census Bureau. The increase was mainly due to orders for transportation equipment, which rose 34.8% to $102.2 billion. Excluding transportation equipment, new orders fell 0.2%, while excluding defense, they rose 10.4%. In addition, durable goods shipments increased 1.1% to $291.1 billion.

Initial claims for US unemployment benefits have fallen for the second week in a row, reaching a low level not seen since early July, despite a recent drop in hiring. Labor Department data released Thursday showed that initial claims fell by 7,000 to 227,000 in the week ended August 10. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for 235,000 applications. Economists and investors alike are watching for signs that the labor market may be weakening faster than expected, especially after the July employment report showed the unemployment rate rising for the fourth straight month and hiring slowing.

In July 2024, Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, while the labour force participation rate increased to 67.1%. The number of people in employment rose to 14.462 million and the employment to population ratio increased to 64.3%. The underemployment rate remained at 6.4%, while the number of hours worked per month increased to 1.960 million.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner-occupied housing costs (CPIH) in the UK rose by 3.1% in the 12 months to July 2024, compared with 2.8% in June 2024. On a monthly basis, the CPIH level remained almost unchanged in July 2024, compared with a fall of 0.3% in July 2023. The CPI rose 2.2% in the 12 months to July 2024, compared with 2.0% in June 2024. On a month-on-month basis, the CPI declined 0.2% in July 2024, lower than the 0.4% decline recorded a year earlier in July 2023.

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.1 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. In June, final demand prices increased 0.2 percent, compared with no change in May. (See Table A.) Compared with the same period a year earlier, the final demand index increased 2.2 percent on an unadjusted basis. The July increase was mainly due to higher prices for final demand goods, which rose by 0.6 percent. In contrast, the services index of final demand fell by 0.2 percent.

According to the latest labour market data, the number of job vacancies continues to fall, although it is still 11.0% higher than it was between January and March 2020. The unemployment rate is slightly lower than a year ago, while both the number of employed and the number of paid employees showed a slight increase in the last quarter. The number of people claiming unemployment benefits rose to 135,000 from 36,000 a year earlier.

Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America, said that if the US Federal Reserve (Fed) does not start cutting interest rates soon, it could have a negative impact on US consumer sentiment. The Fed kept its benchmark interest rate in the same 5.25%-5.50% range at the end of July, where it has been for more than a year, but has indicated that it could cut rates as early as September if inflation continues to moderate. In an interview with CBS, Moynihan stressed that although the central bank has previously communicated that interest rates are unlikely to rise further, a delayed rate cut could have a negative impact on consumers.

In June, the total value of Canadian building permits fell 13.9% to $9.9 billion, continuing a decline that began in May. Declines were reported in 11 of the 13 provinces and territories, affecting both the residential and non-residential sectors. The value of building permits in constant 2017 dollars fell 14.3% in June, following a 13.4% decline in May. The value of residential building permits declined 11.5% to $6.5 billion in June, contributed by 9 of the 13 provinces and territories.

Employment in Canada fell by 2,800 in July, marking the second consecutive month of decline. Despite this, the unemployment rate remained surprisingly stable at 6.4%. A significant drop in the participation rate to 65.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, helped avoid a more severe rise in unemployment. Although the headlines may paint a worrying picture, the details are more positive: full-time employment increased by 61,600 and hours worked rose by 1.0% month-on-month.

For the week ending August 3, the seasonally adjusted number of new jobless claims for unemployment benefits was 233,000, down 17,000 from the revised figure for the previous week, according to preliminary data. The previous week's figure was revised by 1 000, from 249 000 to 250 000. The 4-week moving average rose to 240 750, 2 500 above the previous week's revised average.

The New Zealand dollar continues to strengthen against the US dollar, supported by better-than-expected New Zealand employment data. As a result, traders are adjusting their expectations and lowering the chances that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will cut interest rates next week. According to data released by Statistics New Zealand on Wednesday, the country's unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in the second quarter (Q2), up from 4.3% in the first quarter, but better than expected at 4.7%

Growth in the UK construction sector accelerated as the second half of the year got underway, with July seeing much faster growth in both activity and new orders during the month. In turn, firms increased purchasing activity and staff numbers for the third consecutive month. Higher demand for inputs put some pressure on supply chains and input costs rose at a faster pace.

The US ISM non-manufacturing index rose from 48.8 to 51.4, above market expectations of 51.0. New orders jumped from 47.3 to 52.4, while the employment index rose from 46.1 to 51.1, indicating that the sector is back on a growth path. The activity/output index performed particularly strongly, rising from 49.6 to 54.5, while prices paid increased from 56.3 to 57.0.

According to the latest HCOB PMI® survey, business activity growth in the German services sector declined for the second consecutive month in July. The loss of momentum contributed to the first decline in employment in the sector this year. Nevertheless, business expectations improved slightly, although only partially reversing the significant decline of the previous month. In terms of inflation, average prices charged by service firms registered the slowest rate of increase since April 2021, although it was still up when measured by pre-pandemic standards.

Job growth in the United States in July was significantly slower than expected and the unemployment rate rose, the Labor Department reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 114,000, compared with a downwardly revised 179,000 in June and a Dow Jones estimate of 185,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021. Average hourly earnings, an inflation barometer that is closely watched, rose 0.2% in the month and 3.6% from a year earlier, both below forecasts of 0.3% and 3.7%, respectively.

The consumer price index (CPI) in Switzerland fell by 0.2% in July 2024 compared with the previous month, to 107.5 points. Inflation was +1.3% compared with the same month of the previous year. According to the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), the 0.2% decrease compared to the previous month is due to several factors, including lower prices for international package tours and air travel.

Today's US ISM July manufacturing index was very weak. The overall balance fell to 46.8 from 48.5 (consensus 48.8), meaning it has been below the 50 threshold in 20 of the past 21 months. Employment was very weak, falling from 49.3 to 43.4, the worst reading since the epidemic (June 2020) and foreshadowing a potentially very disappointing non-farm payroll number tomorrow. Meanwhile, new orders fell from 49.3 to 47.4 and production fell from 48.5 to 45.9.

The Bank of England announced in a statement on Thursday that it has cut interest rates for the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. The Bank's nine-member policy-making body voted 5-4 to cut the Bank's base rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 5% from its 1-year high of 5.25%. Economists were divided on whether the autonomous bank would cut interest rates, given the persistent price pressures on the services sector, which accounts for around 80% of the UK economy. However, UK inflation has already reached the bank's target of 2%.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at a two-decade high on Wednesday, while leaving open the possibility of a rate cut at its next meeting in September. Why is this important? High borrowing costs are negatively impacting the labor market, suggesting the Fed may cut rates soon.

In the twelve months to the June 2024 quarter, the CPI rose by 3.8%. The main price increases in this quarter were for Housing (+1.1%), Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+1.2%), Clothing and footwear (+3.1%) and Alcohol and tobacco (+1.5%).

McDonald's on Monday reported a surprising drop in sales worldwide, the first decline in 13 quarters, as consumers looking for a deal shy away from higher-priced menu items, including Big Macs.

Mitsubishi Motors' shares jumped on Monday after media reports that the Japanese automaker is in talks to join a planned strategic partnership with Nissan and Honda. Nissan and Honda said in March that they were exploring cooperation in electric vehicle components and artificial intelligence in automotive software platforms, although they do not plan to make a capital tie-up.

US economic growth in the second quarter significantly exceeded forecasts, rising 2.8% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, compared to an estimated 2% and 1.4% previously. Core PCE prices also increased at a slower pace than expected, rising 2.9%, although this was slightly above the 2.7% previously expected. Personal spending rose 2.3%, which also beat expectations. Overall, this fits into the Fed's "soft landing" scenario and has little impact on expectations for a September rate cut, although there has been speculation that they may move as early as next week, which I doubt they will do.

Consumer prices in the Japanese capital rose 2.2% in July compared with the same period a year earlier, data showed on Friday. The increase accelerated for the third consecutive month, maintaining market expectations of a rate hike in the near future. The data came ahead of the Bank of Japan's two-day rate-setting meeting, which ends on Wednesday, where the bank's board will discuss the possibility of a rate hike and detail how it plans to reduce its massive bond purchases. The rise in the consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food costs, was in line with market forecasts and followed a 2.1% increase in June.

US President Joe Biden said on Wednesday that he was dropping out of the race against Republican Donald Trump over concerns about the future of American democracy, and in his first public statement since completing his re-election bid, said he was stepping aside to allow a new generation to take over. In a speech in the Oval Office, Biden quoted former presidents Thomas Jefferson, George Washington and Abraham Lincoln as he described his love for the office he leaves in six months, ending half a century in public office.

US business activity growth rose at its fastest pace in 27 months in July, signalling a strong start to the third quarter, according to S&P Global's flash report. However, growth varied by sector, with the services sector leading the recovery, while manufacturing output fell for the first time in six months. The positive signs were somewhat dampened by a slowdown in employment growth and a second month of declining business confidence, mainly due to rising political uncertainty, heightened by the run-up to the presidential election.

French private sector output was close to stabilising in July. Although business activity in services firms expanded again, this was partly offset by a significant contraction in factory output. As a result, the combined output level of the two sectors fell slightly at the beginning of the third quarter. According to the latest HCOB survey, French demand for goods and services continued to fall, although employment growth remained stable. It is important to note that business confidence has been falling for the fourth consecutive month, reaching its lowest level so far this year.

The National Association of REALTORS® reported that existing home sales declined in June, while the median sales price reached an all-time high for the second consecutive month. Sales declined in all four major regions of the United States. On a year-over-year basis, sales declined in the Northeast, Midwest and South regions, while the West remained flat. Total existing-home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and cooperative housing, fell 5.4% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.89 million units in June.

Berkshire Hathaway has reduced its stake in BYD to below 5%, in what is likely to be the last time Berkshire will publicly disclose its share sale in China's largest electric vehicle maker. The firm reduced its stake in BYD's H-shares from 5.06% to 4.94% on July 16, according to a report filed with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Monday. On June 11, the stake was 7.02%.

The People's Bank of China has cut its short-term policy rate for the first time in nearly a year, bolstering economic support after disappointing growth and setting a new course for interest rates. The seven-day rate was cut by 10 basis points to 1.7%, the PBOC said in a statement on Monday. The move is aimed at optimizing the open market operation mechanism and enhancing financial support to the economy, they added. Chinese banks followed suit about an hour later, cutting their main benchmark lending rates by 10 basis points each.

Canadian consumers are likely to have cut back on spending in June, following a significant drop in spending in May, pointing to a weak first half of the year for the country's retail sales. According to a preliminary estimate released by Statistics Canada on Friday, retail receipts fell 0.3% in June. That followed a 0.8% drop in May, which exceeded the 0.6% decline expected in a Bloomberg survey. April's 0.6% increase was the only monthly sales gain so far this year.

UK retail sales fell by 1.2% in June 2024, after growing by 2.9% in May. Most sectors saw a decline, with sales at department stores and clothing retailers broadly back to the level seen in the first quarter of 2024. Sales volumes in the second quarter of 2024 were down 0.1% compared to the previous quarter and down 0.2% compared to the same period in 2023.

The Governing Council decided today to leave the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. The information received confirms the Governing Council's previous assessment of the medium-term inflation outlook. Although some indicators of underlying inflation increased in May due to one-off factors, most indicators either remained stable or declined in June. As expected, the inflationary impact of high wage growth was dampened by profits. Monetary policy continued to provide restrictive financing conditions.

The latest UK labour market data continue to show signs of a gradual slowdown. Vacancy rates are falling while unemployment is rising. Although wage growth remains relatively strong, it is at a slower pace than a few months ago. Short-term changes in some employment indicators show a mixed picture. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) data show employment has fallen, while HMRC's Real-Time Index (RTI) data show that the number of paid employees has increased in recent months.

Euro area annual inflation was 2.5% in June 2024, down slightly from 2.6% in May. A year ago, in June 2023, the rate was 5.5%. The annual inflation rate in the EU as a whole was 2.6% in June 2024, compared with 2.7% in May. In June last year, it was 6.4%. The data are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. The lowest annual inflation rates were recorded in Finland (0.5%), Italy (0.9%) and Lithuania (1.0%). In contrast, the highest annual rates were found in Belgium (5.4%), Romania (5.3%), Spain and Hungary (both 3.6%).

The consumer price index including owner-occupied housing costs (CPIH) in the UK rose by 2.8% in the 12 months to June 2024, the same rate as in the 12 months to May 2024. On a monthly basis, CPIH rose by 0.2% in June 2024, the same as in June 2023. The consumer price index (CPI) in the UK rose by 2.0% in the 12 months to June 2024, similar to the increase in the 12 months to May 2024. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.1% in June 2024, the same rate as in June 2023.

US retail sales unchanged in June, above expectations. Retail sales remained unchanged in June, defying Wall Street fears of a slowdown and showing that US consumers continue to spend despite signs of a slowing US economy. Economists had expected a 0.3% decline, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Census Bureau data showed that retail sales for May were revised up to 0.3% from an earlier reading of 0.1%. June sales excluding auto and gasoline sales rose 0.8%, above consensus estimates for a 0.2% increase.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, down from 2.9% in May. The slowdown in inflation was mainly due to slower growth in gasoline prices, which rose by only 0.4% in June, after a 5.6% increase in May. The CPI excluding gasoline showed an annual increase of 2.8% in June. A 1.8% decline in prices of consumer durables also contributed to the slowdown in the overall CPI.

China's National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday that the country's GDP grew 4.7% in the second quarter from the same period a year earlier, below the 5.1% growth forecast in a Reuters poll. Retail sales in June also came in below estimates, expanding by just 2% instead of the 3.3% growth expected. In contrast, industrial production beat expectations, rising 5.3% in June from a year earlier, compared with 5% estimated by Reuters. Urban fixed investment rose 3.9% in the first six months of the year, in line with expectations.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) fell a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent in June after remaining unchanged in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the past 12 months, the index for all items excluding seasonal adjustment increased 3.0 percent. The index for gasoline fell 3.8 percent in June after declining 3.6 percent in May, more than offsetting an increase in shelter costs. The energy index fell 2.0 percent, similar to the previous month.

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) in the UK is estimated to have increased by 0.4% in May 2024, after showing no growth in April 2024. Real gross domestic product is estimated to have increased by 0.9% in the three months to May 2024 compared with the three months to February 2024, driven by a 1.1% rise in services output. Services output rose by 0.3% in May 2024, following a 0.3% increase in April 2024, and was the largest contributor to GDP growth in May 2024.

China's CPI inflation in June fell to 0.2%, lower than the 0.3% recorded in the previous year and below the forecast of 0.4%. Inflation has been very low for the past four months, ranging between 0.1-0.3% year-on-year. On a monthly basis, CPI inflation fell to -0.2% in June and inflation has now fallen for two consecutive months. The softer inflation figures are partly explained by a larger-than-expected fall in food prices (-2.1% y/y).

Citigroup is winding down its Haitian operations, ending more than five decades of presence in the country, due to weak demand from institutional clients and a decline in international banking activity. The exit is part of a strategic review and will have no significant economic impact on Citi, the bank said.

German exports fell by more than expected in May due to weak demand from China, the United States and European countries, according to data released by the Federal Statistical Office on Monday. Exports fell by 3.6% in May from the previous month, almost double the 1.9% decline forecast in a Reuters poll of analysts.

Chinese car sales fell 6.9% in June from a year earlier, the third straight month of declines, as government stimulus failed to spur consumer demand amid a rapid economic recovery. Total passenger car sales stood at 1.78 million, accelerating the pace of decline from a 2.2 percent plunge in May and a 5.8 percent plunge in April, data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) showed on Monday.

Canada's unemployment rate rose to 6.4 percent in June as total employment fell during the month, Statistics Canada reported Friday. The report showed employers eliminated a total of 1,400 jobs in June. That figure compares with an unemployment rate of 6.2 percent in May, when the economy added 27,000 jobs. The Bank of Canada expects a slowdown in the labour market, particularly in wage growth.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June, while the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Jobs increased in government, health care, social assistance and construction.

The UK construction industry remained on a growth path towards the end of the second quarter of the year, although overall expansion moderated as housing construction activity fell again. New orders growth was slower, partly due to election uncertainty, but the pace of job creation accelerated. Meanwhile, input cost inflation has accelerated since May, although it remains subdued.

In June 2024, the consumer price index (CPI) remained unchanged from the previous month at 107.7 points. The year-on-year inflation rate was +1.3%. According to data from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), the unchanged index is the result of a levelling off of the opposite trends. Price increases were observed for international package travel, fruit vegetables and cabbages. Prices for hotels and private transport also increased.

The U.S. private sector added 150,000 jobs in June, while annual wages rose 4.9% year-over-year, according to the June ADP® National Employment Report™, produced in partnership with the ADP Research Institute® and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (Stanford Lab). The ADP National Employment Report is an independent measurement tool that provides a high-frequency picture of the private sector labor market based on actual, anonymized payroll data for more than 25 million U.S. workers.

Growth in the euro area economy continued to pick up at the end of the second quarter, although the pace of expansion slowed and growth fell to a three-month low. Activity growth was held back by a fall in demand, as new orders declined for the first time since February. The weaker sales performance in June was particularly noticeable in foreign markets. According to new survey data, price pressures eased across the euro area, with input cost and output price growth rates falling to five- and eight-month lows, respectively, but still above pre-pandemic trends.

According to a flash estimate by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, annual inflation in the euro area is expected to be 2.5% in June 2024, down slightly from 2.6% in May. Among the main components of inflation, the annual rate for services is expected to remain the highest in June (4.1%, unchanged from May). Food, alcohol and tobacco inflation is expected to fall to 2.5% (from 2.6% in May), non-energy industrial inflation to remain stable at 0.7%, while energy inflation is expected to ease to 0.2% (from 0.3% in May).

According to the country's supply managers, economic activity in the manufacturing sector fell for the third consecutive month in June, and for the 19th time in the past 20 months. In the latest Manufacturing ISM Business Report released today by Timothy R. Fiore, chairman of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, the manufacturing PMI registered 48.5 percent in June, a 0.2 percentage point decline from 48.7 percent in May.

According to the latest HCOB PMI data, the euro area manufacturing economy continued to weaken at the end of the second quarter as the contraction in output accelerated significantly to its strongest pace so far this year. New orders, purchasing activity and employment also fell at a faster pace, but the 12-month production outlook remained positive. Input costs rose for the first time since February 2023, leading to some restraint in discounting practices by euro area factories. Output costs fell only slightly and declined at the weakest pace in more than a year.

Canada's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 0.3% in April, compared to essentially flat in March. Both the goods-producing (+0.3%) and services (+0.3%) sectors contributed to the increase, with 15 of the 20 sectors growing this month. In April, the largest contributors were wholesale trade, mining, quarrying, oil & gas extraction and manufacturing, after these sectors had declined in the previous month.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.1% year-on-year in June 2024, after a 2.3% increase in May, according to preliminary estimates at the end of the month. The slight decline in inflation was due to a slowdown in food and energy prices over the year. Year-on-year inflation is expected to remain unchanged for services, manufactured goods and tobacco, at the same level as in May. On a monthly basis, consumer prices remain almost unchanged in June 2024 (+0.1% after 0.0% in May).

Pending home sales fell 2.1% in May, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The number of transactions declined month-over-month in the Midwest and South, while the Northeast and West showed increases. On a year-over-year basis, all regions of the US recorded declines. The pending home sales index (PHSI), which forecasts home sales based on contract signings, fell to 70.8 in May. On an annual basis, the number of pending transactions fell 6.6%. The index of 100 represents the level of contracting activity in 2001.

According to the third estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2024. This growth is lower than the 3.4 percent growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023. The GDP estimate just released is based on more complete source data than last month's second estimate, which showed a 1.3 percent increase.