Trump vs Harris 2024 polls: Harris leads in 4 latest polls

The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains a dead heat with just over two weeks to go before the election, according to a number of polls that largely show Harris with a narrow national lead - though key swing states are virtually tied.

Targeted economic steps: China cuts its benchmark lending rates to stabilise the property market

China has cut its benchmark lending rate after the central bank launched a series of measures to stimulate economic growth and prevent a property market crisis at the end of September. The one-year lending rate was lowered from 3.35% to 3.10%, while the five-year lending rate (LPR) was cut from 3.85% to 3.60%. The cut came at the upper end of the 20-25 basis point range indicated by People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng in speeches since late September, and exceeded the 20 basis point cut expected by all 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

The latest UK retail sales data (September 2024)

Retail sales volumes are expected to have increased by 0.3% in September 2024, following a 1.0% rise in August (unchanged from the previous release). Retail sales of computing and telecoms products increased significantly, but this was partly offset by a decline in supermarket sales. On a quarter-on-quarter comparison, sales volumes in the third quarter of 2024 (July-September) were up 1.9% compared to the second quarter (April-June).

The ECB cuts its key policy rates by 25 basis points on the basis of a review of the inflation outlook and economic developments

The Governing Council today decided to cut the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. In particular, the deposit facility rate, which plays a key role in the conduct of monetary policy, will fall. The decision is based on an updated assessment of the inflation outlook, underlying inflation dynamics and the strength of monetary policy transmission. Inflation developments show that the disinflationary trend is proceeding at the expected pace.

Labour market trends in Australia – September 2024 statistics

In September 2024, the Australian labour market showed stable trends. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, while the participation rate rose to 67.2%. The number of people in employment increased to 14.514 million and the employment to population ratio remained unchanged at 64.4%. The underemployment rate remained at 6.4% while hours worked increased to 1.965 million.

UK inflation data for September 2024: Slowing growth in CPIH and CPI

The Consumer Price Index including Housing Costs (CPIH) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6% in September 2024, down from 3.1% in August. On a monthly basis, the CPIH rose by just 0.1% in September 2024, compared with 0.5% a year earlier in September 2023. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.7% year-on-year in the year to September 2024, compared with 2.2% in August. On a monthly basis, the CPI remained almost unchanged in September 2024, compared with a rise of 0.5% in September 2023.

Evolution of the number of paid employees in the UK in 2024

The estimated number of paid employees in the UK fell by 35,000, or 0.1%, between July and August 2024. However, when looking at the period August 2023 to August 2024, it rose by 165,000, or 0.5%. When analysing the period June to August 2024, which is directly comparable with the Labour Force Survey (LFS) results, the number of paid employees increased by 3,000 (0.0%) over the quarter, while on an annual basis, the number of employees increased by 203,000, or 0.7%.

US Producer Price Index stagnation: September 2024 data

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported that the Producer Price Index for Final Demand in September 2024 was unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis. August showed a 0.2 percent increase, while July was flat. Over the past 12 months, the final demand index has risen by 1.8 percent, according to unadjusted data. Within final demand, the services price index rose 0.2 percent in September, offsetting a 0.2 percent decline in final demand goods prices.

August 2024 GDP data: small growth in services in the UK

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.2% in August 2024, after no change in July 2024 (the figures have not been revised since the last release). Preliminary data show that real GDP rose by 0.2% in the three months to August compared with the three months to May 2024. Services output rose 0.1% in August, preceded by an unrevised 0.1% increase in July, and services output also rose 0.1% in the three months to August.

September Inflation Report: Developments in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in August and July. Over the past 12 months, the index for all items excluding seasonal adjustments rose 2.4%. In September, the index of housing costs rose 0.2% and the index of food prices rose 0.4%. These two categories accounted for more than 75% of the monthly increase in all items. The index for food at home rose 0.4%, while the index for food outside the home rose 0.3% during the month.

In June, employment in the United States increased by 206 thousand

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June, while the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Jobs increased in government, health care, social assistance and construction.

The UK construction sector’s mixed performance at the end of the second quarter

The UK construction industry remained on a growth path towards the end of the second quarter of the year, although overall expansion moderated as housing construction activity fell again. New orders growth was slower, partly due to election uncertainty, but the pace of job creation accelerated. Meanwhile, input cost inflation has accelerated since May, although it remains subdued.

Stable inflation and consumer price index in June 2024 in Switzerland

In June 2024, the consumer price index (CPI) remained unchanged from the previous month at 107.7 points. The year-on-year inflation rate was +1.3%. According to data from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), the unchanged index is the result of a levelling off of the opposite trends. Price increases were observed for international package travel, fruit vegetables and cabbages. Prices for hotels and private transport also increased.

June Employment and Wage Growth in the US Private Sector

The U.S. private sector added 150,000 jobs in June, while annual wages rose 4.9% year-over-year, according to the June ADP® National Employment Report™, produced in partnership with the ADP Research Institute® and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (Stanford Lab). The ADP National Employment Report is an independent measurement tool that provides a high-frequency picture of the private sector labor market based on actual, anonymized payroll data for more than 25 million U.S. workers.

Euro area economic growth slows at the end of the second quarter

Growth in the euro area economy continued to pick up at the end of the second quarter, although the pace of expansion slowed and growth fell to a three-month low. Activity growth was held back by a fall in demand, as new orders declined for the first time since February. The weaker sales performance in June was particularly noticeable in foreign markets. According to new survey data, price pressures eased across the euro area, with input cost and output price growth rates falling to five- and eight-month lows, respectively, but still above pre-pandemic trends.

Euro area inflation fell slightly in June

According to a flash estimate by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, annual inflation in the euro area is expected to be 2.5% in June 2024, down slightly from 2.6% in May. Among the main components of inflation, the annual rate for services is expected to remain the highest in June (4.1%, unchanged from May). Food, alcohol and tobacco inflation is expected to fall to 2.5% (from 2.6% in May), non-energy industrial inflation to remain stable at 0.7%, while energy inflation is expected to ease to 0.2% (from 0.3% in May).

US manufacturing activity fell again in June

According to the country's supply managers, economic activity in the manufacturing sector fell for the third consecutive month in June, and for the 19th time in the past 20 months. In the latest Manufacturing ISM Business Report released today by Timothy R. Fiore, chairman of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, the manufacturing PMI registered 48.5 percent in June, a 0.2 percentage point decline from 48.7 percent in May.

Euro area manufacturing sector shows weakness but outlook remains positive

According to the latest HCOB PMI data, the euro area manufacturing economy continued to weaken at the end of the second quarter as the contraction in output accelerated significantly to its strongest pace so far this year. New orders, purchasing activity and employment also fell at a faster pace, but the 12-month production outlook remained positive. Input costs rose for the first time since February 2023, leading to some restraint in discounting practices by euro area factories. Output costs fell only slightly and declined at the weakest pace in more than a year.

GDP growth in Canada in April

Canada's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 0.3% in April, compared to essentially flat in March. Both the goods-producing (+0.3%) and services (+0.3%) sectors contributed to the increase, with 15 of the 20 sectors growing this month. In April, the largest contributors were wholesale trade, mining, quarrying, oil & gas extraction and manufacturing, after these sectors had declined in the previous month.

French inflation data for June 2024

The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.1% year-on-year in June 2024, after a 2.3% increase in May, according to preliminary estimates at the end of the month. The slight decline in inflation was due to a slowdown in food and energy prices over the year. Year-on-year inflation is expected to remain unchanged for services, manufactured goods and tobacco, at the same level as in May. On a monthly basis, consumer prices remain almost unchanged in June 2024 (+0.1% after 0.0% in May).

Pending home sales in the US fell in May

Pending home sales fell 2.1% in May, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The number of transactions declined month-over-month in the Midwest and South, while the Northeast and West showed increases. On a year-over-year basis, all regions of the US recorded declines. The pending home sales index (PHSI), which forecasts home sales based on contract signings, fell to 70.8 in May. On an annual basis, the number of pending transactions fell 6.6%. The index of 100 represents the level of contracting activity in 2001.

US GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024

According to the third estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2024. This growth is lower than the 3.4 percent growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023. The GDP estimate just released is based on more complete source data than last month's second estimate, which showed a 1.3 percent increase.

Australian CPI data: significant price increases until May

The monthly CPI index rose 4.0% in the 12 months to May, compared with a 3.6% increase in the 12 months to April. The annual CPI indicator excluding volatile items and holiday travel was also 4.0% in May, down slightly from 4.1% in April. This figure excludes fuels, fruits, vegetables and holiday travel and accommodation. The largest price increases were recorded for housing (+5.2%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.3%), transport (+4.9%) and alcohol and tobacco (+6.7%).

US Consumer Confidence Index June 2024

In June 2024, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 100.4 from 101.3 in May. The Current Situation Index rose to 141.5 from 140.8 the previous month. Conversely, the expectations index fell to 73.0 from 74.9 in May and remained below 80 for the fifth consecutive month, generally indicating a recession is approaching.

May CPI rise in Canada: 2.9% annual increase

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May rose 2.9% year-on-year, compared with a 2.7% increase in April. The increase in the overall CPI was mainly driven by higher prices for services, which rose by 4.6% in May, following a 4.2% increase in April. Among services, prices for mobile services, travel, rentals and air transport rose the most. Prices of goods rose by 1.0%, the same pace as in April. On a month-on-month basis, the consumer price index rose by 0.6% in May, mainly due to higher prices for travel.

German business sentiment worsens in June according to Ifo

German business morale unexpectedly fell in June, reflecting more pessimistic expectations for the largest European economy, according to a survey published on Monday. The Ifo institute said its business climate index fell to 88.6 points in June from 89.3 in May, compared with a forecast of 89.7 in a Reuters analyst survey. "The German economy is finding it difficult to emerge from stagnation," said Clemens Fuest, president of the Ifo. The expectations index fell to 89.0 in June from a slightly revised 90.3 the previous month.

UK private sector business activity expanded at a slower pace in June

UK private sector business activity growth slowed in June, rising at a more moderate pace than at any time since November last year. This was due to slower growth in the services sector, while a strong performance in manufacturing has led to a significant increase in goods production since April 2022. The slowdown in the services sector was partly due to the election period, when customers' spending decisions paused.

Slowdown in euro area recovery at the end of the second quarter

The euro-area recovery slowed down at the end of the second quarter of the year, according to preliminary data from the PMI® survey. New orders fell for the first time in four months, leading to weaker business activity and employment growth. Business confidence fell to its lowest level since February. Input cost and output price inflation fell to six- and eight-month lows respectively.

June manufacturing outlook – stability in the United States

According to companies responding to the June Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, overall manufacturing activity in the United States remained stable. Although the survey's overall activity index declined, it remained in positive territory, while the index for shipments and new orders remained negative. The employment index increased but remained negative, indicating an overall decline in employment levels. Both price indices continued to show a general upward trend in prices. Most future activity indicators remained positive, although expectations are less broadly based for overall growth over the next six months.

The SNB cuts its key policy rate to 1.25%

The Swiss National Bank cuts its key policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.25%. The change will take effect from tomorrow, 21 June 2024. Banks' demand deposits with the SNB will bear interest at the SNB's reference rate up to a certain limit, and above that limit will bear interest at 0.75%. The SNB also intervenes actively in the foreign exchange market if necessary. The underlying inflationary pressure has again declined compared to the previous quarter.

US retail sales growth in May below expectations

Retail sales grew more slowly than expected in May as high interest rates and inflation continued to weigh on consumers. According to the Commerce Department, retail sales grew 0.1%, lower than the 0.3% increase expected by economists, but better than the 0.2% decline in April. Retail sales excluding autos and gasoline rose 0.1%, below the 0.4% increase expected but better than April's 0.3% decline. The report comes less than a week after the Federal Reserve's revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed the central bank expects an interest rate cut this year.

Inflation data for the euro area and the European Union in May 2024

The annual inflation rate in the euro area rose to 2.6% in May 2024 from 2.4% in April, compared with 6.1% a year earlier. EU annual inflation was 2.7% in May 2024, also up from 2.6% in April but up from 7.1% a year earlier. The data were published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. The lowest annual inflation rates were registered in Latvia (0.0%), Finland (0.4%) and Italy (0.8%), while the highest rates were recorded in Romania (5.8%), Belgium (4.9%) and Croatia (4.3%). Compared with April, annual inflation fell in eleven Member States, remained stable in two and rose in fourteen.

Business activity fell slightly in New York State in June

Business activity in New York State declined modestly in June, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey 2024. Although the overall business conditions index rose ten points, it still stands at -6.0, a level below zero. New orders were unchanged, while shipments showed an increase. Delivery times were slightly shorter and the availability of supply, which is reported as a monthly indicator for the first time, was little changed. Stock levels remained unchanged. Labour market conditions remained weak as employment and hours worked continued to decline.

Retail sales growth in China exceeded expectations, but other economic indicators lagged

Retail sales in China in May beat expectations, rising 3.7% year-on-year. This exceeded the 3% growth forecast by Reuters economists. By contrast, other economic indicators such as industrial production and investment in fixed assets fell short of expectations. Industrial production grew by 5.6% year-on-year, below the 6% growth expected, while investment in fixed assets rose by 4%, just below the 4.2% forecast in the Reuters poll.

China banks’ May lending missed analysts’ expectations

Chinese banks extended 950 billion yuan ($130.93 billion) in new yuan loans in May. This represents an increase from 730 billion yuan in April. The figure is also down from 1.36 trillion yuan in the same month last year. The People's Bank of China does not publish a monthly breakdown, Reuters calculated the May data from the bank's January-May statistics released on Friday, comparing them with the January-April figures.

The Bank of Japan keeps interest rates in the 0-0.1 percent range

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Japan (MPJ) unanimously decided to keep policy rates in the 0-0.1 percent range at its meeting today. Purchases of government bonds, corporate bonds and other money market instruments will continue as decided in March.

Unemployment falling and employment rising in Australia in May

The Australian unemployment rate fell to 4.0% in May from 4.1% previously, in line with forecasts, according to official data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday. Employment rose by 39.7k from 38.5k in April, exceeding the consensus forecast of 30.0k. The Australian participation rate rose to 66.8% in May from 66.7% in April.

In the US, wholesale prices fall in May, signalling easing inflation

Wholesale prices unexpectedly fell in May, another sign that inflation is moderating. The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures the prices received by producers in the market for goods and services, fell 0.2% during the month, the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics said today. That decline reversed April's 0.5% increase and contrasts with the Dow Jones' 0.1% growth forecast. PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services was unchanged, versus expectations for a 0.3% increase.

US CPI stagnated in May: inflation eased

The Consumer Price Index showed no increase in May, indicating that inflation eased slightly in the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. The CPI, an overall inflation index that measures the change in the price of a basket of goods and services in the US economy, remained unchanged during the month, although it rose 3.3% from a year earlier, the department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected a 0.1% monthly increase and a 3.4% annual increase.

No growth in UK GDP in April 2024

UK monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) showed no growth in April 2024, compared with a 0.4% increase in March. Real GDP grew by 0.7% in the three months to April 2024 compared with the previous three months. Output in the services sector rose 0.2% in April, the fourth consecutive monthly increase, and for the three-month period as a whole, it expanded 0.9%. Production output fell by 0.9% in April, following a 0.2% increase in March, but increased by 0.7% overall over the three months.

Small business sentiment in the US improved in May

U.S. small business confidence and hiring plans rose to their highest levels of the year in May, but the upcoming U.S. presidential election also pushed uncertainty to a near four-year high, according to a survey released Tuesday. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its small business optimism index rose eight-tenths of a point to 90.5 last month.

The labour market cooling in the UK

This month's figures show a continuing cooling of the labour market in the UK. Job vacancies are falling while unemployment is rising, although earnings growth remains strong. Both employment estimates from the Labour Force Survey and estimates of paid employment from HMRC's real-time information data have fallen in recent months.

Major brokerages expect the Fed to cut rates from September or later

The latest mixed data has prompted major brokerages to lower their expectations for a US Federal Reserve rate cut in September or beyond. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to leave the benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged at its two-day meeting that ends on Wednesday. The range stands at 5.25-5.50%, where it has been since July last year.

Japan’s first quarter GDP fell slightly

Japan's economy contracted less than initially announced in January-March due to upward revisions to investment spending and inventory data, providing modest support for the central bank's plan to raise interest rates again this year.

Unemployment claims in the US up

In the week ending June 1, the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims total was 229,000, up 8,000 from the previous week's revised level, according to preliminary data. The previous week's figure was revised up by 2 000, from 219 000 to 221 000. The 4-week moving average was 222 250, 750 fewer than the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised by 500, from 222 500 to 223 000.

The ECB has relaxed monetary policy

The Governing Council decided today to cut the ECB's three key interest rates by 25 basis points. On the basis of an updated assessment of the inflation outlook, underlying inflation dynamics and the strength of monetary policy transmission, it is now appropriate to ease the monetary policy stance after nine months of keeping interest rates unchanged. Since the Governing Council meeting in September 2023, inflation has declined by more than 2.5 percentage points and the inflation outlook has improved significantly.

Retail sales decreased in April in the euro area and the EU

Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, estimates for April 2024 the volume of seasonally adjusted retail trade decreased by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.6% in the EU, compared with March, according to its first estimate. In March, the volume of retail trade increased by 0.7% in the euro area and by 0.6% in the EU. On an annual comparison, compared with April 2023, the index for calendar-adjusted retail trade remained unchanged in the euro area and fell by 0.1% in the EU.

Job creation slowed in May in the US private sector

ADP reported Wednesday that private sector job creation slowed more than expected in May, signaling further weakness in the labor market. According to the payroll firm, companies added 152,000 jobs, down from a downwardly revised 188,000 in April and below the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 175,000. This is the lowest monthly level since February. That said, annual wage growth remained at 5%, a level it has held for three months.

Slight contraction in the French services sector in May

Activity in the French services sector fell slightly in May, after rising for the first time in almost a year in April. Sales continued to rise on the back of domestic demand and employment also increased. Inflationary pressures eased, with input costs and output prices growing at their slowest pace since 2021.

Swiss consumer prices rose by 0.3% in May

The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in May 2024 compared with the previous month, reaching 107.7 points. Compared to the same month last year, inflation was +1.4%. These are the results of the Federal Statistics Office (FSO). The increase of 0.3% compared to the previous month is due to several factors, including the rise in the price of renting a home and international package holidays. The price of various fresh vegetables and petrol also rose. In contrast, the price of heating oil and foreign red wine fell, as did the price of additional accommodation.

Intel fights AMD with new data centre chips

Intel on Tuesday unveiled its next-generation Xeon server processors in a bid to regain market share in the data center market, and revealed that the Gaudi 3 artificial intelligence accelerator chips will be priced much lower than rivals' products.

New orders in US manufacturing increased in May

New orders rose again in May in the US manufacturing sector, leading to a faster expansion of production in the middle of the second quarter of the year. Strengthening business confidence brought positive expectations, boosting hiring, purchasing activity and the accumulation of finished goods inventories. The pace of input cost inflation accelerated to its fastest pace in more than a year, to which firms responded by raising their selling prices.

Euro area manufacturing shows possible signs of recovery in May

The eurozone manufacturing sector's prolonged slump may have turned a corner last month, according to a survey that showed new orders fell at the slowest pace in two years, leading to an improvement in business confidence. The HCOB's latest euro-area manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, rose to 47.3 points in May from 45.7 points in April, rising below the 50 level that indicates a 23rd monthly increase in activity.

Chinese manufacturing PMI fell to a three-month low of 49.5 in May

China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.5 in May from 50.4 in April, hitting a three-month low. This data was disappointing, especially in light of recent strong industrial activity indicators, and significantly below market and expert expectations that had forecast growth. The main reasons for the decline were a fall in new orders (49.6) and new export orders (48.3), which after two months of expansion turned into contraction again.

Euro area inflation growth in May 2024

Eurostat flash estimates that annual inflation in the euro area is expected to be 2.6% in May 2024, up from 2.4% in April. The highest annual inflation rate is expected in services, which could rise to 4.1% from 3.7% in April. Food, alcohol and tobacco inflation is expected to fall slightly to 2.6% from 2.8% in April. Non-energy industrial goods inflation may fall slightly to 0.8% from 0.9% in April. Energy price inflation, on the other hand, may increase to 0.3% from -0.6% deflation in April.

US GDP growth slowed in the first quarter of 2024

US real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2024, according to the second estimate of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, compared with 3.4% growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. The current estimate uses more detailed data than last month's preliminary estimate, which projected growth of 1.6%. The new estimate reflects a downward revision to consumer spending.

Moderate economic growth in Switzerland in the first quarter of 2024

Switzerland's sports-adjusted GDP grew by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2024. The services sector grew again and private consumption grew solidly. However, industrial production stagnated. Manufacturing value added (-0.2%) fell slightly in the first quarter and chemicals & pharmaceuticals (-0.9%) continued its weak performance of recent quarters. Value added in other industries remained broadly stable.

Australian CPI data – annual inflation rose to 3.6% in April

The monthly CPI index rose by 3.6% in the 12 months to April. The most significant price increases were in Housing (+4.9%), Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (+3.8%), Alcohol & Tobacco (+6.5%) and Transport (+4.2%). The monthly CPI index rose by 3.6% in the 12 months to April, following a 3.5% increase in the 12 months to March. The annual movement in the monthly CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel was 4.1% in April, unchanged from March.

Australian retail sales data in April 2024

Seasonally adjusted retail sales in April 2024 rose by 0.1% month-on-month, while they increased by 1.3% compared to the same period last year. Due to the disruption caused by the COVID-19 epidemic, trend estimates between March 2020 and June 2022 are not available as these trends are unlikely to accurately reflect the evolution of retail activity.

Amazon is in talks with Italy to invest billions of euros in its cloud plan

Amazon's computing unit AWS is in talks with Italy to invest billions of euros to expand its data centre business in the country, as part of the tech giant's drive to boost its cloud services in Europe, four people familiar with the matter said. According to the sources, the size and location of the investment are being discussed between the parties, with one of them saying Amazon Web Service (AWS) is considering expanding its current Milan site or building a new one.

China sets up third fund with $47.5 billion to boost semiconductor sector

China has set up its third planned state-backed investment fund to boost the semiconductor industry with a capital of 344 billion yuan ($47.5 billion), according to a government-maintained company registry announcement. The investment of hundreds of billions of yuan in the sector puts into perspective President Xi Jinping's ambition for China to become self-sufficient in semiconductors. This commitment has taken on renewed urgency after the US imposed a series of export control measures over the past few years, citing Beijing's fears that it could use advanced chips to boost its military capabilities.

G7 Finance Summit begins, with Ukraine and China as main topics

Finance leaders of the Group of Seven industrial democracies began a two-day meeting in Italy on Friday to reach a common position on the need for a loan to Ukraine and to oppose China's "unfair" industrial policies. However, statements from officials ahead of the meeting in Stresa in northern Italy suggest that no concrete details will emerge on the US push for a loan to Ukraine backed by future proceeds from some $300 billion of frozen Russian assets.

UK retail sales in April 2024

In April 2024, the volume of UK retail sales fell by 2.3%, compared with a revised decline of 0.2% in March 2024, down from 0.0%. Sales volumes fell across most sectors, with clothing retailers, sports equipment, toy and game stores and furniture stores performing particularly poorly, driven by low footfall due to bad weather.

Unemployment benefit claims in the US down, according to data out today

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to underlying strength in the labor market that is expected to continue to support the economy. A second weekly decline announced Thursday by the Labor Department reversed much of the jump earlier in the month, bringing claims to levels last seen at the end of August last year. Although job growth is slowing due to the cumulative effect of large Fed rate hikes in 2022 and 2023, layoffs remain very low.

French private sector down in May

Business activity in the French private sector contracted again in May, although the decline was weaker than in the previous year. New orders rose on the back of strong demand in the domestic market, while exports continued to fall. Employment continued to rise for the fourth month in a row.

Price growth slows in the UK: CPI falls to 2.3% in April

Consumer prices (including housing costs) have risen by 3% over the past year, a slower pace than the 3.8% increase seen previously. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.5% in April, compared with 1.2% in April last year. Consumer prices excluding housing costs rose 2.3% over the past year, 3.2% lower than a year earlier. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.3% in April, compared with 1.2% in April last year.

New Zealand keeps interest rate on hold

In New Zealand, restrictive monetary policy has reduced pressures on the economy's capacity, which has moderated consumer price inflation. Annual consumer price inflation is expected to return to the central bank's target range of 1-3 percent by the end of 2024. The decline in inflation is partly due to lower price increases for imported goods and services. Globally, inflation has also eased in a number of advanced economies from its previous 30-year peak. However, services inflation is slowly falling and expected interest rate cuts continue to be delayed.

Canadian Consumer Price Index – slight fall in inflation rate in April

Statistics Canada will release its April Consumer Price Index report on Tuesday morning. Economists expect Canada's annual inflation rate to fall slightly last month from 2.9% in March. The RBC forecast prices were 2.7 percent higher in April compared with a year earlier.The Bank of Canada will be watching Tuesday's report closely as it prepares for its June 5 interest rate decision. Financial markets are leaning toward a rate cut in July, but economists say new inflation data will help to firm expectations.

IBM makes more artificial intelligence models open source and does business in Saudi Arabia

IBM announced on Tuesday that it will make a family of artificial intelligence models available as open source software and will contribute to the training of an Arabic-language artificial intelligence system in Saudi Arabia. The company, based in Armonk, New York, has a different strategy for exploiting AI than some of its competitors, such as Microsoft, which closely guards its AI models and charges for access. IBM, like Facebook owner Meta Platforms, prefers to provide open access to its models. On Wednesday, it unveiled the "Granite" family of AI models that can be customised for businesses.

Oil price up on uncertainty after Iranian president’s death

Oil prices continued to rise on Monday amid political uncertainty in major producing countries after the Iranian president died in a helicopter crash and the Saudi Arabian crown prince cancelled a trip to Japan citing health concerns about the king. Brent rose by 41 cents, or 0.5%, to $84.39 a barrel, after earlier rising to $84.43, the highest since 10 May.

Stable inflation in the euro area and the EU

Euro area annual inflation was 2.4% in April 2024, unchanged compared with March 2024. A year earlier the rate was 7.0%. EU annual inflation was 2.6% in April 2024, also stable compared with March. A year earlier the rate was 8.1%. The data were published by Eurostat.

Toyota shut down its Mexican plant several times after suppliers faced labour shortages

Toyota Motor was forced to shut down production at a Mexican plant several times in February and March after a shortage of local labour forced suppliers to halt production, according to people familiar with the carmaker's operations. Toyota halted production for a total of 19 days in February and March at its plant in Tijuana, Mexico, where it makes the Tacoma pick-up truck, according to two people. Technical problems at the plant also contributed to the shutdown.

In the US, the pace of price increases is slowing, but inflation remains a concern

The pace of price increases in the United States showed signs of slowing last month after a series of higher-than-expected inflation figures fuelled concerns about the world's largest economy. The Labor Department said consumer prices rose 3.4% in the 12 months to April, compared with 3.5% in the previous month. Higher rents and petrol costs accounted for much of the rise in the cost of living.

Change in France’s consumer price index (CPI) in April 2024

In France, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.5% in April 2024 compared with the previous month, and by only 0.2% in March. The increase was mainly due to slight rises in the prices of services (+1.0% after 0.0% the previous month), transport (+5.6% after -0.9% the previous month), insurance services (+3.6% after -2.4% the previous month) and food (+0.1% after 0.0% the previous month). Manufacturing and tobacco remained unchanged at +1.3% and +1.4% respectively. Energy prices fell at a slower pace compared with the previous month, -0.3% after -0.7% in the previous month.

German investor morale hits two-year high in May

German investor sentiment improved more than expected in May, reaching its highest level since February 2022, according to the ZEW economic research institute. The economic sentiment index rose to 47.1 points from 42.9 points in April. "Following the stronger-than-expected growth of the German economy in the first quarter of 2024, both the perception of the current situation and economic expectations have become more positive," said Achim Wambach, President of ZEW.

Microsoft invests €4 billion in France

Technology and software giant Microsoft will invest 4 billion euros ($4.3 billion) in France as part of its annual "Choose France" business summit, vice president and president Brad Smith told Le Figaro newspaper. Smith said that much of the investment money will be focused on the artificial intelligence (AI) sector and that Microsoft will set up a data centre in Mulhouse, France.

Amazon invests $1.3 billion in France and creates 3000 jobs

Amazon announced on Monday that it is investing more than 1.2 billion euros ($1.3 billion) in its French operations and creating more than 3,000 permanent jobs in the country. The French presidency said on Sunday that Amazon and other companies including GSK and Accenture will announce billions of euros in investments as part of the country's annual "Choose France" event, which starts on Monday.

Canadian labour market beats expectations, adding 90,000 jobs in April

Canada's labour market added a net 90,400 jobs in April, with the employment rate remaining unchanged at 6.1 percent, Statistics Canada said on Friday. The increase exceeded analysts' expectations, with employment growth driven by an increase in part-time employment, the federal data agency said, adding that 50,000 part-time jobs were created in April.

UK GDP grew by 0.4% in March 2024

Monthly real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.4% in March 2024, following an unrevised increase of 0.2% in February 2024 and 0.3% in January 2024. Real GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in the three months to March 2024 compared with the three months to December 2023.

Bank Of England keeps interest rates stable after today’s meeting

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to achieve the 2% inflation target and to support growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 8 May 2024, the MPC voted 7-2 to keep the Bank Rate at 5.25%. Two members favored lowering the Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage point to 5%. The Committee's updated forecasts for economic activity and inflation will be included in the May Monetary Policy Report, and market expectations are for the Bank Rate to fall from 5¼% to 3¾% by the end of the forecast period, down from the 3¼% end-point in February.

“US Fuel Demand: Economic Slowdown?”

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), demand for gasoline and diesel in the United States has plummeted to its lowest seasonal levels since the onset of the COVID pandemic, raising concerns about an economic slowdown. Monthly averages for the week ending May 3 show gasoline demand at 8.63 million barrels per day, a figure not seen since May 2020. Demand for distillates has also dropped to 3.6 million barrels per day, marking a seasonal low not observed since the pandemic began. The 3-2-1 crack spread, serving as a gauge for refining market sentiment, fell below $26.50 per barrel for the first time in approximately three months on Wednesday, the lowest level in three years. These numbers have sparked debate about whether economic activity is decelerating or if renewable energies are making strides in displacing fossil fuels. But taking a look on the US economic numbers, the reason of the decline is obviously the slowing economic activity.

American Oil and Natural Gas Production: Growth and Prices

American oil and natural gas production broke records last year, and this trend continues into this year. The average daily oil production in 2024 reached 13.12 million barrels, marking a 7.1% increase from the previous year. Natural gas production also saw an increase, with January levels up by 1.1% compared to a year ago. Currently, the price of WTI crude oil is around $85 per barrel, which is 7% higher than a year ago. This elevated price level may support further production growth, despite a slight decrease in the number of drilling rigs."

AstraZeneca says it is withdrawing COVID-19 vaccine worldwide as demand declines

AstraZeneca said on Tuesday that it had initiated a worldwide withdrawal of the COVID-19 vaccine due to a "surplus of available updated vaccines" since the pandemic. The company also said it would continue to withdraw marketing authorisations for the Vaxzevria vaccine in Europe. "Since then, as more variant COVID-19 vaccines have been developed, there is a surplus of available updated vaccines," the company said, adding that this has led to a reduction in demand for Vaxzevria, which is no longer being manufactured and supplied.

Shell to sell Singapore refinery and petrochemical assets to Chandra Asri and Glencore

Shell said on Wednesday that it has agreed to sell its Singapore refinery and petrochemical assets - Asia's main oil hub - to a joint venture between Indonesia's Chandra Asri Capital and Glencore Asian Holdings. The transaction will see Shell's entire stake in Shell Energy and Chemicals Park Singapore transferred to the joint venture CAPGC, Shell said in a statement.

Interest rates in Australia unchanged

At today's meeting, the Board decided to leave the target cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent and the interest rate paid on settlement balances unchanged at 4.25 per cent. Inflation remains high and is falling more gradually than expected. According to the latest information, inflation continues to moderate but is falling more slowly than expected. The consumer price index rose 3.6 percent in the year to the March quarter, up from 4.1 percent in the year to December.

China’s Nio turns to rival BYD to run new EV brand

Chinese electric vehicle maker Nio has struck a deal with larger rival BYD to source batteries for a lower-priced EV brand that aims to compete with Tesla, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter said. The deal is a win for BYD, which is looking to expand its revenues beyond EV sales under its own brand. It also shows the impact of the Chinese market's relentless competition on the price of new EVs and batteries, which are the biggest single cost in a new vehicle.

Euro area economic recovery continued at the beginning of the second quarter

According to the latest HCOB PMI® surveys, the euro area economic recovery continued to make progress at the beginning of the second quarter, as overall business activity growth accelerated to an 11-month high. Once again, the expansion was driven by the services sector, where output levels improved solidly and at a slightly faster pace than the average since 1998. An increase in new business inflows supported higher activity and the fastest pace of job creation in ten months, while business confidence remained strong.

Growth in petrol demand slows this year due to the growth of electric vehicles in China and the US

Analysts say global gasoline demand growth could halve in 2024, squeezing refiners' margins in the second half of the year, driven by the switch to electric cars in China and the US and a return to normal consumption after last year's jump following COVID-19. Demand is expected to rise by 340,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 26.5 million bpd this year, the lowest growth since 2020, down from 700,000 bpd growth last year, as China nears its peak in transport fuel demand and the US exceeds it, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

Is Boeing in trouble?

Boeing is now grappling with a surge in whistleblower claims, following the tragic deaths of two individuals, raising serious concerns about safety and transparency within the company. The recent passing of a second whistleblower, Joshua Dean, 45, adds to the growing unease surrounding Boeing's operations. Dean, a former quality auditor at Spirit AeroSystems, one of Boeing's major suppliers, succumbed to a rapidly advancing infection on Tuesday morning. His death comes just two months after another whistleblower was reportedly found dead from a self-inflicted gunshot wound. These incidents have sparked fears among legal representatives that at least 10 other whistleblowers, who are pushing for reforms within Boeing, may be deterred from coming forward. The gravity of the situation cannot be overstated, as the lives and well-being of countless individuals hang in the balance.

U.S. employment growth slows in April

US job growth slowed more than expected in April and annual wage growth cooled, but it is probably too early to expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates before September as the labour market remains fairly tight. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 175,000 last month, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday in its highly watched employment report. The March figures have been revised up, with the number of people employed rising by 315,000 from 303,000 reported earlier.

Sony and Apollo make $26 billion offer for Paramount Pictures

Sony Pictures Entertainment and Apollo Global Management have made a $26 billion cash offer for Paramount Global, according to the Wall Street Journal. The two companies filed a non-binding offer letter on Wednesday, signed by Sony Pictures CEO Tony Vinciquerra and Apollo partner Aaron Sobel, the WSJ reports, citing people familiar with the matter.

US labour market unchanged, productivity stalls in the first quarter

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits remained steady at a low level last week, suggesting that the labor market is still fairly tight and will continue to support the economy in the second quarter. Economists largely dismissed other data released by the Labor Department on Thursday that showed worker productivity growth nearly stalled in the first quarter, noting that the trend in productivity remains solid. They also argued that it was a seasonal quirk that tends to skew gross domestic product and productivity lower in the first quarter.

The consumer price index (CPI) in Switzerland rose by 0.3% in April 2024 compared with the previous month

In Switzerland, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in April 2024 compared with the previous month, reaching 107.4 points. Compared with the same month of the previous year, inflation was +1.4%. These are the results of the Federal Statistics Office (FSO). The increase of 0.3% compared to the previous month is due to several factors, including the rise in international package tours and air fares. Furniture and furnishings and petrol also showed price increases.

New Zealand’s labour market participation has fallen significantly

New Zealand's unemployment rate rose more than expected in the March quarter, despite a sharp fall in the number of people participating in the labour market, bringing the Reserve Bank of New Zealand closer to cutting interest rates ahead of the US Federal Reserve. The labour market is softening, with unemployment rising sharply to 4.3%, above the 4.2% level expected and the 4% rate reported three months earlier. A year ago, unemployment was 3.4%.

GDP growth in Germany in Q1 2024

The gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2024 compared with the fourth quarter of 2023 - after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations - after falling at the end of 2023 (by a revised -0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared with the previous quarter; previously: -0.3%). The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that the modest growth was due to an increase in gross fixed capital formation in construction and in exports. By contrast, there was a decline in household final consumption expenditure.

Factory activity in China stagnated in April, but still points to an expanding economy

Chinese factory activity remained in expansion territory for the second consecutive month in April, the latest sign of an acceleration in the pace of economic recovery. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which measures sentiment among factory owners, was 50.4 in April compared with 50.8 in March, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Tuesday. The reading remained above the 50 watershed level indicating expanding activity, after March's reading capped five consecutive months of contraction.

Elon Musk discusses Chinese data transfer

SHANGHAI/BEIJING (Reuters) -Tesla CEO Elon Musk arrived in Beijing on Sunday on an unannounced visit, where he was expected to discuss the rollout of Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and permission to transfer data overseas. The U.S. electric vehicle maker rolled out FSD, the most autonomous version of its Autopilot software, four years ago but has yet to make it available in China, its second-largest market globally, despite customer demand. Tesla has since 2021 stored all data collected by its Chinese fleet in Shanghai as required by Chinese regulators and has not transferred any back to the United States. Musk is looking to obtain approval to transfer data collected in the country abroad to train algorithms for its autonomous driving technologies. Tesla has sold more than 1.7 million cars in China since it entered the market a decade ago and the Shanghai factory is its largest globally.

Turkey is in talks with Exxon for LNG delivery

Turkey is negotiating a long-term LNG supply agreement with ExxonMobil to reduce its dependency on Russia. The potential deal involves 2.5 million tons of LNG annually for a decade, with an estimated yearly cost of nearly $1.1 billion. As a country with strong ties to Russia, Turkey is building a new supplier portfolio for its gas needs. Turkey has gas procurement contracts with several countries, including the United States. The goal is to diversify gas supply to address energy prices and ensure supply security.

Deutsche Bank down 5% after Postbank litigation resurfaces

Deutsche Bank shares fell 5% early Monday after reports of a long-running lawsuit could cost the largest German lender up to 1.3 billion euros ($1.39 billion). The case comes as a blow to Deutsche, which reported better-than-expected results last week that boosted its shares. It's the latest in a series of problems that have emerged with the purchase of no-frills Postbank.

Japanese Yen may strengthen, possibly due to Tokyo’s intervention

European traders are waking up to a jittery currency market after the yen reversed sharply from 160 per dollar on Monday, with some speculating that Tokyo could be behind the move while the country is on holiday. The yen's surge - which lifted the yen to 156.55/ dollar - came just hours after it slipped to the weaker side of 160/ dollar for the first time since 1990, a 34-year low.

The parent company would rather shut down TikTok than put it in American hands

ByteDance expects to take legal action to prevent TikTok from being banned in the US, but even if that fails, it would not sell it. The owner ByteDance would rather shut down TikTok than sell it, several sources told Reuters. The parent company wants to use legal means to prevent the otherwise loss-making video-sharing company from being banned in the US, but even if that fails, it would not sell it to the US.

BOJ leaves interest rate unchanged at today’s meeting

The Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged after Friday's monetary policy meeting, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0%-0.1%. The BOJ also said it will resume bond purchases as decided in March. The bank said earlier in March that it had previously bought bonds worth about six trillion yen ($83.5 billion) a month.

US economic growth more subdued than expected

US economic growth started the year much weaker than expected as consumer spending rose at a slower pace, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Gross domestic product, a broad measure of goods and services produced in the January-to-March period, rose 1.6% on a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual basis, the department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said.

Deutsche Bank’s first quarter results jump 10%

Deutsche Bank on Thursday posted a better-than-expected 10% rise in first-quarter profit as a rebound in fixed-rate trading and deal-making boosted revenues at its investment banking division. The gains mean investment banking has regained its position as Deutsche's biggest breadwinner from the giant's retail division, which has benefited from higher interest rates recently but suffered from client service disruptions.

JPMorgan worried about Tesla’s future

Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) first-quarter 2024 earnings report showed weaker performance than expected. Quarterly revenue amounted to $21.3 billion, significantly below the Bloomberg consensus of $22.3 billion. Tesla's EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) of $1.578 billion in the first quarter also fell short of the consensus expectation of $1.734 billion. The most concerning metric highlighted by JPMorgan was Tesla's free cash flow, which plummeted to -$2.531 billion in the first quarter, much worse than JPMorgan's estimate of -$1.306 billion and significantly below the company's compiled consensus of -$406 million. This steep decline was attributed to a record accumulation of unsold vehicles, with Tesla producing approximately 47,000 more vehicles than it managed to sell in the first quarter of 2024, despite ongoing price reductions. At the same time, according to JPMorgan, the pressure on the company may decrease in the short term due to the announcements of accelerated introductions of Robotaxi and new products.

Tesla promises “more affordable” cars when the all-new Model 2 hits the shelves

Tesla on Tuesday announced it will introduce "new models" on its current platforms and production lines by early 2025, as it backed away from more ambitious plans to produce an all-new model at a cost of $25,000. Rumors of new proposals for a faster timetable led to a soaring of Tesla shares in after-hours trading, a much-needed boost after months of decline during which Tesla has struggled with fierce competition and declining sales. The increase came despite Tesla posting first-quarter results that fell short of Wall Street expectations.

US business activity growth slowed in April

US business activity continued to grow in April, but the pace of expansion slowed amid signs of weaker demand. The latest rise in output was the smallest so far this year, reflecting a slowdown in the pace of growth and a fall in orders in both manufacturing and services. In April, total new orders fell for the first time in six months. In response, companies cut employment for the first time in nearly four years and business confidence fell to its lowest level since November last year.

Services sector drag offsets manufacturing slump in UK private sector

UK private sector activity expanded for the sixth consecutive month in April, as a strong rebound in services sector output helped offset a slight decline in manufacturing output. Output growth was supported by a solid rise in the volume of new orders and a modest acceleration in hiring, all driven by the services economy. April data showed a steep rise in the average cost burden in the private sector, with the inflation rate rising sharply from March to its highest level since May 2023.

Venezuela: Oil Sales Shift to Digital Currency

Venezuela has reverted to using digital currency for oil sales to circumvent the freezing of oil revenues in foreign banks after the reimposition of U.S. sanctions. PDVSA is accelerating the adoption of digital payment methods in oil export transactions by utilizing Tether, tied to the U.S. dollar. The Venezuelan state oil company had already experimented with Tether for oil sales in 2023. Following the expiration of a six-month temporary easing of sanctions, Venezuela managed to increase oil exports, but new buyers are now required to maintain a digital wallet. President Maduro continues to obstruct the opposition, and the easing of sanctions was contingent upon free and fair elections, a condition he violated. Amidst the reimposition of sanctions, new negotiations are underway between Venezuela and Chevron regarding the expansion of their joint venture in the Orinoco Belt. Nevertheless, the reimposition of sanctions did not prompt price fluctuations in oil markets, despite the loss of several supply sources.